Today’s Close: 8097 All time High: 9119.20 52 Week Low: 6638.55 Down from All time High: 11.2% Up from 52 week low: 21.96%
My last detailed outlook was on 16th September 2014 NIFTY was 7932.9 – my wordings were “greed is good and its time to be greedy” from then NIFTY made high 9119.2 on 4th March i.e. less than 6 months which is 15% with all twists and turns being updated on twitter and more frequently to subscribers.
In all NIFTY points made during period:
Sep-Dec – 600 points positional 1000 points squeezes
Jan-Apr- 1600 points positional 1500 points squeezes
Net : 4700 points in 6 months which is 780 points per month !!
Moving forward today will be the bottom out day , precise buying commentary on twitter during the day.
Market outlook : NIFTY 8650-8840-9228-9400
Disclaimer : Our blog, twitter are only my views and are never an investment advice.
FII Activity for the Past Week
India VIX(Weekly Change): 11.8875 -0.4775 -3.86%
NIFTY PCR Current Month:1.13
Index PCR: 1.03
Highest Open Interest in NIFTY
Call : 8200(7522600) CE Put : 8000 PE(8427300)
Federal Reserve as expected did nothing, and when it has already stated what it is going to do i.e. start raising rates from early 2015 it’s foolish to expect something new every fed meeting . I know several persons who were extremely panic because of this fed meeting and most of those fearful guys cut their positions at the lows of Thursday’s first 10 minute(I know at least few persons who were holding good long positions since long time and cut that day at bottom ) , but what happened after that you all know well. We in our earlier post has clearly said : It’s time to be greedy and it continues .
As we see 8000 PE and 8200 CE has highest OI so its normal to expect expiry above 8000 and below 8200 . But there is a big but , FII’s are continuous buyers of options and sellers of index future and that is not in small quantity but just for past two weeks it’s 6615 Cr and -2269 Cr respectively . So expiry can give big big move . Which is expiry bet? Definitely few things for Paid Subscribers and can’t give exotic platter in free lunch. For expiry bet the price is 15000/-
Big stocks move coming
There are at least 15 F&O stocks we have identified which are going to give 20-50% move(some in negative direction!! in-spite of positive medium term market outlook) and 6 pure cash stocks which are ready for 30-300% returns . Serious persons may inquire for the same on mail(firstname.lastname@example.org) or WhatsApp
Fresh buy recommended in
NIFTY buy between 7930-7990 tgt 8181-8400
ARVIND Mills buy between 298-301 tgt 344-360-380
TVSMotors buy between 200-212 tgt 228-248-260
McDowell lready in decent gains , hold ffor fpositional targets already given.
Our favorites CanBank, SBI, Tata Steel, PNB hold for positional targets already given , keep trading half quantity .
Index PCR 0.92 NIFTY PCR 0.92 !!!!
FII Activity for the Past Week
India VIX: 12.3650 -0.15 -1.22%
NIFTY PCR Current Month:1.15
Index PCR: 1.0
Highest Open Interest in NIFTY
Call : 8300(6667550) CE Put : 8000 PE(8425850)
Data Points of the Past Week
- July IIP at 0.5% versus 3.4% in June
- August CPI dips marginally to 7.8%
- US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy review – Wednesday
- CPI inflation in early trade on Monday
- WPI inflation data
NSE from tomorrow is adding 5 new f&o counters. Following is the list
Sr.No Name of the Security Symbol Lot Size
1 EICHER MOTORS LIMITED EICHERMOT 125
2 MINDTREE LIMITED MINDTREE 250
3 MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LIMITED MOTHERSUMI 1000
4 SKS MICROFINANCE LIMITED SKSMICRO 1000
5 TVS MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED TVSMOTOR 2000
For all recommendation must keep in mind markets are not going to be as simple as that of Mar-May one way rally.
Rate Outlook : Though any rate cut is unexpected Rajan may bring surprise 25 bps cut in CRR/Repo Rate
We have recommended buy in Bank NIFTY @15300 lvl for tgt 15550-15680
Option Bet : Bank NIFTY 16000 CE tgt 210-330
NIFTY: 7660 given earlier is a crucial pivot on closing basis. Very short term tgt 8841+ ;bias positive (from where to start will be crucial for real gains)
PNB buy tgt 988-1033-1088
SBI buy tgt 2528-2588-2750
RelCapital accumulate for tgt 680-748-810 in coming days and keep trading few qty in declines
ABIRLANUVO hold for 1800+(Already given on twitter)
Market Outlook for Coming days
We have seen spectacular rally(Feb-June) as was told well in advance and now markets have digested and capitulated well in the last one-two months. Moving forward we are seeing decent opportunity ahead till Diwali 14 at least 1000“tradable” NIFTY points in Aug-Oct timeframe . The major difference this time will be opportunity available in Options and good volatility in commodities too. In the last run-up (feb-june election time) not much was available as “tradable” option opportunity , but this time its good for options too.
For trading the upcoming market opportunity we are offering Diwali Special package for interested candidates. For details fill your details below or visit:Diwali Special
NIFTY buy range above 7660 tgt 8100-8400
There are two scenarios :
1.Pre-budget spike till 7900+ – in that case better exit ur holdings and take rest for till Aug
2.Post –budget secular rally : NIFTY holding 7660 by the time of budget and trading in range 7660-7850 will give further secular rally uptill 8100-8400 levels with stocks performing .
CANARA Bank (424-430) buy tgt 488-522-580
JPASSOCIAT (66-68) buy tgt 84-105
UNITECH (28-29) buy tgt 38-44-48
RELCAPITAL (600-610) buy tgt 680-748-810
Serious traders may join our profit share service . No advance
For Details mail to email@example.com WhatsApp(only): 9431813147
Hope you people followed the warning I gave ( https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=609781549059215&set=a.145866655450709.21344.117265118310863&type=1&fref=nf ) on our FB page and Twitter .
Now the time has come for using the energy conserved.
Our Market Outlook For till Mid-June :
Index Outlook :
NIFTY Positional Buy in 6175-6275 range with tgt 6800-7200-7700 SL closing basis 6100.
Though our target seems exorbitant it is yet to be seen that even after achieving the targets ‘option buyers ‘ esp Index Option buyers will make same kind of money as that of future . Our inclination is that “this should be future traders market rather than option traders “ ; though this is prelim expectation which might change but still even after having bullish outlook with huge movement expected I suggest cherry picking options and better go with stock options rather than index options.
Those planning to buy just b4 election results might be disappointed this time as its not 2009 its 2014
Few stocks selection :
· JPASSOCIAT(38-40) buy tgt 54-66-74
· UNITECH (11-12) buy tgt 17.5-22-28
· ADANI ENTERPRISES (250-260) buy tgt 288-360-480
· SBI (1475-1520) buy tgt 1788-1920-2220-2600
The list is long and for those who are serious to play the upcoming ride may join our election special : http://valuecm.com/elections14.htm