Today’s Close: 8097 All time High: 9119.20 52 Week Low: 6638.55 Down from All time High: 11.2% Up from 52 week low: 21.96%
My last detailed outlook was on 16th September 2014 NIFTY was 7932.9 – my wordings were “greed is good and its time to be greedy” from then NIFTY made high 9119.2 on 4th March i.e. less than 6 months which is 15% with all twists and turns being updated on twitter and more frequently to subscribers.
In all NIFTY points made during period:
Sep-Dec – 600 points positional 1000 points squeezes
Jan-Apr- 1600 points positional 1500 points squeezes
Net : 4700 points in 6 months which is 780 points per month !!
Moving forward today will be the bottom out day , precise buying commentary on twitter during the day.
Market outlook : NIFTY 8650-8840-9228-9400
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FII Activity for the Past Week
India VIX(Weekly Change): 11.8875 -0.4775 -3.86%
NIFTY PCR Current Month:1.13
Index PCR: 1.03
Highest Open Interest in NIFTY
Call : 8200(7522600) CE Put : 8000 PE(8427300)
Federal Reserve as expected did nothing, and when it has already stated what it is going to do i.e. start raising rates from early 2015 it’s foolish to expect something new every fed meeting . I know several persons who were extremely panic because of this fed meeting and most of those fearful guys cut their positions at the lows of Thursday’s first 10 minute(I know at least few persons who were holding good long positions since long time and cut that day at bottom ) , but what happened after that you all know well. We in our earlier post has clearly said : It’s time to be greedy and it continues .
As we see 8000 PE and 8200 CE has highest OI so its normal to expect expiry above 8000 and below 8200 . But there is a big but , FII’s are continuous buyers of options and sellers of index future and that is not in small quantity but just for past two weeks it’s 6615 Cr and -2269 Cr respectively . So expiry can give big big move . Which is expiry bet? Definitely few things for Paid Subscribers and can’t give exotic platter in free lunch. For expiry bet the price is 15000/-
Big stocks move coming
There are at least 15 F&O stocks we have identified which are going to give 20-50% move(some in negative direction!! in-spite of positive medium term market outlook) and 6 pure cash stocks which are ready for 30-300% returns . Serious persons may inquire for the same on mail(email@example.com) or WhatsApp
Fresh buy recommended in
NIFTY buy between 7930-7990 tgt 8181-8400
ARVIND Mills buy between 298-301 tgt 344-360-380
TVSMotors buy between 200-212 tgt 228-248-260
McDowell lready in decent gains , hold ffor fpositional targets already given.
Our favorites CanBank, SBI, Tata Steel, PNB hold for positional targets already given , keep trading half quantity .
Index PCR 0.92 NIFTY PCR 0.92 !!!!
Today’s Close: 7932.90 All time High: 8180.20 52 Week Low: 5700.95 Down from All time High: 3.02% Up from 52 week low : 35.82%
So as we see we are just 3% down from the top and people are crying as if market has crashed , but their crying is not without reason some(or most) are in deep losses . Reason? Definitely not a small correction of 3% ,then what ? There are multiple reasons :
- Most people sat on sidelines and made their positions on the top(this was definitely not all time top) and those people after booking losses will again do the same thing on some other top and in between market will be a bad place to be i for them.
- Even if they made positions on the all time top (say at exact mathematical top) , its down only 3% , but they make “huge” loss and the only reason behind that is their highly leveraged position . Appropriate quantity according to ones capital is never followed . On the sidelines I want to highlight the most important fact of our paid services is that I always suggest clients quantity according to every individual’s capital and that’s most important aspect of any of our paid service . A simple calculation is if you buy NIFTY by paying a margin of say 40000 on say 8100 you are leveraged 10 times and what most people do is they do it to the fullest of their potential meaning a 3% movement in their direction will make them richer by 30% and in case of opposite direction its -30% , and in that case they won’t be able to take the next position and will “try their luck in options” .
- Most people want to make quick by Options ,but they are good only when handled properly . And by proper handling it is not only meant that you buy the “right” call/put , it means you buy the right quantity, and also right strike and most important even if market is bullish or bearish to know whether to go for option or not as even after good spot movement options might not perform at all . The current example is 8000 NIFTY PUT suppose one bought on 2nd September expecting a fall in NIFTY , his/her trading direction (for small gains) might be right but that put was 80 that day and today also after almost 250 down from that day high of that put is 88 . And even if we consider extreme ,i.e. he bought that day on lowest price 56.25 (NIFTY fut high that time 8139) one can’t sell in mere Rs. 32 gain (even assuming he would have managed to sell at exact top) as in case off loss risk was that of 56.25 so its quite reasonable to expect similar returns. But on the contrary in just 2 days period if one had bought 8200 Call on 1st September at say Rs. 40 (low was 35.9 but I am picking 40 as in our paid service we had bought at that level and several trades were executed and confirmed at that level) on 3rd September the call made 84.9 but we take 80 as selling level (again reason same as above) call became double and NIFTY moved only 100 points. So the point is not to boast what I did but , whether to buy option or not and which one to buy.
There are different permutations and combinations of above three factors to make HUGE losses even in very little opposite market movement . And what my paid service separates from the free ones is not the quality of calls but the number of calls (actually lesser than in free service) and saving from above three .
Now we come to the trading setup, and further market direction .
On that I have only few words to quote from Gordon Gekko : Greed is good and its time to be greedy . In plain words market rising has just started not ending here. And it has long long to go . The current rally has started from 7600 so we are just 600 points (at recent peak ) or 350 points at cmp into rally. Bookmark this post and watch after each 800 points rise starting 7600.
How to be successful in achieving that , again from Gordon Gekko : Buy my Service. As money can’t be made be made that easily , either put a lot of efforts of yours and and a lot of money for gaining experience or simply pay for that.
FII Activity for the Past Week
India VIX: 12.3650 -0.15 -1.22%
NIFTY PCR Current Month:1.15
Index PCR: 1.0
Highest Open Interest in NIFTY
Call : 8300(6667550) CE Put : 8000 PE(8425850)
Data Points of the Past Week
- July IIP at 0.5% versus 3.4% in June
- August CPI dips marginally to 7.8%
- US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy review – Wednesday
- CPI inflation in early trade on Monday
- WPI inflation data
NSE from tomorrow is adding 5 new f&o counters. Following is the list
Sr.No Name of the Security Symbol Lot Size
1 EICHER MOTORS LIMITED EICHERMOT 125
2 MINDTREE LIMITED MINDTREE 250
3 MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LIMITED MOTHERSUMI 1000
4 SKS MICROFINANCE LIMITED SKSMICRO 1000
5 TVS MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED TVSMOTOR 2000
Our Recommendation : Investment Buy and Also Short term bet(6-9 months)
Time Frame : 2-3 yrs
Short term buy target: 3800-4200
Long Term(2-3 yrs) target : 12000+
Any dips should be used to add this counter. But remember this is not a trading bet .
Recently launched Ciaz is going to be game changer for Maruti. Till now Maruti was leader in entry level and hatchback, but was missing the game in more lucrative( high margin) sedan segment . Further its design and and brand image always stopped buyers from shifting to the next level car which is going to change big way by Ciaz. Any car lover can say its best of Vento(safety and build quality), Honda City(elegant design) and Verna (gadgetry) and add to that Maruti service and reliability.
So it should bring Maruti to the section ,it has been left till now.
For all recommendation must keep in mind markets are not going to be as simple as that of Mar-May one way rally.
Rate Outlook : Though any rate cut is unexpected Rajan may bring surprise 25 bps cut in CRR/Repo Rate
We have recommended buy in Bank NIFTY @15300 lvl for tgt 15550-15680
Option Bet : Bank NIFTY 16000 CE tgt 210-330
NIFTY: 7660 given earlier is a crucial pivot on closing basis. Very short term tgt 8841+ ;bias positive (from where to start will be crucial for real gains)
PNB buy tgt 988-1033-1088
SBI buy tgt 2528-2588-2750
RelCapital accumulate for tgt 680-748-810 in coming days and keep trading few qty in declines
ABIRLANUVO hold for 1800+(Already given on twitter)
Market Outlook for Coming days
We have seen spectacular rally(Feb-June) as was told well in advance and now markets have digested and capitulated well in the last one-two months. Moving forward we are seeing decent opportunity ahead till Diwali 14 at least 1000“tradable” NIFTY points in Aug-Oct timeframe . The major difference this time will be opportunity available in Options and good volatility in commodities too. In the last run-up (feb-june election time) not much was available as “tradable” option opportunity , but this time its good for options too.
For trading the upcoming market opportunity we are offering Diwali Special package for interested candidates. For details fill your details below or visit:Diwali Special