Today’s Close: 7932.90 All time High: 8180.20 52 Week Low: 5700.95 Down from All time High: 3.02% Up from 52 week low : 35.82%
So as we see we are just 3% down from the top and people are crying as if market has crashed , but their crying is not without reason some(or most) are in deep losses . Reason? Definitely not a small correction of 3% ,then what ? There are multiple reasons :
- Most people sat on sidelines and made their positions on the top(this was definitely not all time top) and those people after booking losses will again do the same thing on some other top and in between market will be a bad place to be i for them.
- Even if they made positions on the all time top (say at exact mathematical top) , its down only 3% , but they make “huge” loss and the only reason behind that is their highly leveraged position . Appropriate quantity according to ones capital is never followed . On the sidelines I want to highlight the most important fact of our paid services is that I always suggest clients quantity according to every individual’s capital and that’s most important aspect of any of our paid service . A simple calculation is if you buy NIFTY by paying a margin of say 40000 on say 8100 you are leveraged 10 times and what most people do is they do it to the fullest of their potential meaning a 3% movement in their direction will make them richer by 30% and in case of opposite direction its -30% , and in that case they won’t be able to take the next position and will “try their luck in options” .
- Most people want to make quick by Options ,but they are good only when handled properly . And by proper handling it is not only meant that you buy the “right” call/put , it means you buy the right quantity, and also right strike and most important even if market is bullish or bearish to know whether to go for option or not as even after good spot movement options might not perform at all . The current example is 8000 NIFTY PUT suppose one bought on 2nd September expecting a fall in NIFTY , his/her trading direction (for small gains) might be right but that put was 80 that day and today also after almost 250 down from that day high of that put is 88 . And even if we consider extreme ,i.e. he bought that day on lowest price 56.25 (NIFTY fut high that time 8139) one can’t sell in mere Rs. 32 gain (even assuming he would have managed to sell at exact top) as in case off loss risk was that of 56.25 so its quite reasonable to expect similar returns. But on the contrary in just 2 days period if one had bought 8200 Call on 1st September at say Rs. 40 (low was 35.9 but I am picking 40 as in our paid service we had bought at that level and several trades were executed and confirmed at that level) on 3rd September the call made 84.9 but we take 80 as selling level (again reason same as above) call became double and NIFTY moved only 100 points. So the point is not to boast what I did but , whether to buy option or not and which one to buy.
There are different permutations and combinations of above three factors to make HUGE losses even in very little opposite market movement . And what our my paid service separates from the free ones is not the quality of calls but the number of calls (actually lesser than in free service and saving from above three .
Now we come to the trading setup, and further market direction . On that I have only few words to quote from Gordon Gekko : Greed is good and its time to be greedy .
How to be successful in achieving that , again from Gordon Gekko : Buy my Service. As money can’t be made be made that easily , either put a lot of efforts of yours and and a lot of money for gaining experience or simply pay for that.
FII Activity for the Past Week
India VIX: 12.3650 -0.15 -1.22%
NIFTY PCR Current Month:1.15
Index PCR: 1.0
Highest Open Interest in NIFTY
Call : 8300(6667550) CE Put : 8000 PE(8425850)
Data Points of the Past Week
- July IIP at 0.5% versus 3.4% in June
- August CPI dips marginally to 7.8%
- US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy review – Wednesday
- CPI inflation in early trade on Monday
- WPI inflation data
NSE from tomorrow is adding 5 new f&o counters. Following is the list
Sr.No Name of the Security Symbol Lot Size
1 EICHER MOTORS LIMITED EICHERMOT 125
2 MINDTREE LIMITED MINDTREE 250
3 MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LIMITED MOTHERSUMI 1000
4 SKS MICROFINANCE LIMITED SKSMICRO 1000
5 TVS MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED TVSMOTOR 2000
Our Recommendation : Investment Buy and Also Short term bet(6-9 months)
Time Frame : 2-3 yrs
Short term buy target: 3800-4200
Long Term(2-3 yrs) target : 12000+
Any dips should be used to add this counter. But remember this is not a trading bet .
Recently launched Ciaz is going to be game changer for Maruti. Till now Maruti was leader in entry level and hatchback, but was missing the game in more lucrative( high margin) sedan segment . Further its design and and brand image always stopped buyers from shifting to the next level car which is going to change big way by Ciaz. Any car lover can say its best of Vento(safety and build quality), Honda City(elegant design) and Verna (gadgetry) and add to that Maruti service and reliability.
So it should bring Maruti to the section ,it has been left till now.
For all recommendation must keep in mind markets are not going to be as simple as that of Mar-May one way rally.
Rate Outlook : Though any rate cut is unexpected Rajan may bring surprise 25 bps cut in CRR/Repo Rate
We have recommended buy in Bank NIFTY @15300 lvl for tgt 15550-15680
Option Bet : Bank NIFTY 16000 CE tgt 210-330
NIFTY: 7660 given earlier is a crucial pivot on closing basis. Very short term tgt 8841+ ;bias positive (from where to start will be crucial for real gains)
PNB buy tgt 988-1033-1088
SBI buy tgt 2528-2588-2750
RelCapital accumulate for tgt 680-748-810 in coming days and keep trading few qty in declines
ABIRLANUVO hold for 1800+(Already given on twitter)
Market Outlook for Coming days
We have seen spectacular rally(Feb-June) as was told well in advance and now markets have digested and capitulated well in the last one-two months. Moving forward we are seeing decent opportunity ahead till Diwali 14 at least 1000“tradable” NIFTY points in Aug-Oct timeframe . The major difference this time will be opportunity available in Options and good volatility in commodities too. In the last run-up (feb-june election time) not much was available as “tradable” option opportunity , but this time its good for options too.
For trading the upcoming market opportunity we are offering Diwali Special package for interested candidates. For details fill your details below or visit:Diwali Special
NIFTY buy range above 7660 tgt 8100-8400
There are two scenarios :
1.Pre-budget spike till 7900+ – in that case better exit ur holdings and take rest for till Aug
2.Post –budget secular rally : NIFTY holding 7660 by the time of budget and trading in range 7660-7850 will give further secular rally uptill 8100-8400 levels with stocks performing .
CANARA Bank (424-430) buy tgt 488-522-580
JPASSOCIAT (66-68) buy tgt 84-105
UNITECH (28-29) buy tgt 38-44-48
RELCAPITAL (600-610) buy tgt 680-748-810
Serious traders may join our profit share service . No advance
For Details mail to email@example.com WhatsApp(only): 9431813147
Hope you people followed the warning I gave ( https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=609781549059215&set=a.145866655450709.21344.117265118310863&type=1&fref=nf ) on our FB page and Twitter .
Now the time has come for using the energy conserved.
Our Market Outlook For till Mid-June :
Index Outlook :
NIFTY Positional Buy in 6175-6275 range with tgt 6800-7200-7700 SL closing basis 6100.
Though our target seems exorbitant it is yet to be seen that even after achieving the targets ‘option buyers ‘ esp Index Option buyers will make same kind of money as that of future . Our inclination is that “this should be future traders market rather than option traders “ ; though this is prelim expectation which might change but still even after having bullish outlook with huge movement expected I suggest cherry picking options and better go with stock options rather than index options.
Those planning to buy just b4 election results might be disappointed this time as its not 2009 its 2014
Few stocks selection :
· JPASSOCIAT(38-40) buy tgt 54-66-74
· UNITECH (11-12) buy tgt 17.5-22-28
· ADANI ENTERPRISES (250-260) buy tgt 288-360-480
· SBI (1475-1520) buy tgt 1788-1920-2220-2600
The list is long and for those who are serious to play the upcoming ride may join our election special : http://valuecm.com/elections14.htm
Writing after long break as THERE IS A DECENT OPPORTUNITY I am seeing in the markets after the current meltdown.
Major Support at: 5248 Buy NIFTY or 5400 Call Aug with stop @5248 for target 5460 – 5548
Stocks to Buy : Tata Steel , HINDALCO and Raxbaxy
USDINR is overheated now . Short @65.5(when it goes there) with SL 66 tgt 63.8– 61.2
NIFTY is a buy CMP spot 5278 and is a buy in future with sl 5211 spot on closing basis for the target of 5333—5373–5423(in future).
STOCKS TO WATCH:
SBIN: sl 2072 tgt 2222
TATA STEEL: Cmp 464 sl 444 tgt 478—486–499
HINDALO: Cmp 129 sl 124 tgt 136
RELINFRA RELCAPITAL is a buy on every dips..
RCOMis now a great investment pick cmp 84 tgt 142—-208 (12 month tgt)
More to come…..